Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: optimistic declarations are issued from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is allocated on containing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from across the border, a capacity afforded by timely intelligence. From observation points, defense planes that had been deployed to engage hostile cruise missiles flew past – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: several firings deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably delivered by Western nations. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly becomes grim resignation: maybe the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a large-caliber weapon fired at a drone in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its destination.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: multiple fatalities, damage and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a need that regional partners are demonstrably unable to substitute in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from Washington provoked deep reactions, debate and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from US leadership follows the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, no doubt, persist.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame specific actors of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington works based on a premise well known to international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government presumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does minimal to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the status quo will not shift further in its favour in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding civilians and areas but averting a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not move to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be much harder after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to kill the 28 points of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on continued Western support.
