A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The team have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in universities but scarcely any politicians or activists want to engage with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two articles that strive for objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a incompetent official who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has has important lessons to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
